Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Stats: What if Marc-Andre Fleury had started every game this season?

First let me start by saying that I am a huge fan of Brent Johnson. From his love of Led Zeppelin (prominently displayed on his goalie mask) to his leadership role in the Pens' locker room, he is a favorite of both fans and players alike. Still, it can't be contended that he has struggled mightily so far this season, culminating in the meltdown in Buffalo over the weekend. Okay, maybe that was unfair: the Penguins as a team have struggled to post Ws when Johnny is given the nod in goal. The team has a record of just 3-7-2 when Johnson is the starting goaltender. This table breaks down all of the games so far this season:

Game Date Opponent Venue GF GA Result Starting Goalie
1 10/6 Canucks road 4 3 W/SO Fleury
2 10/8 Flames road 5 3 W Fleury
3 10/9 Oilers road 1 2 L/SO Johnson
4 10/11 Panthers home 4 2 W Fleury
5 10/13 Capitals home 2 3 L/OT Johnson
6 10/15 Sabres home 2 3 L Fleury
7 10/17 Jets road 1 2 L Fleury
8 10/18 Wild road 4 2 W Johnson
9 10/20 Canadiens home 3 1 W Fleury
10 10/22 Devils home 4 1 W Fleury
11 10/25 Islanders road 3 0 W Fleury
12 10/27 Islanders home 3 2 W/SO Fleury
13 10/29 Maple Leafs road 3 4 L Johnson
14 11/3 Sharks road 3 4 L/SO Fleury
15 11/5 Kings road 3 2 W/SO Fleury
16 11/11 Stars home 3 1 W Fleury
17 11/12 Hurricanes road 3 5 L Johnson
18 11/15 Avalanche home 6 3 W Fleury
19 11/17 Lightning road 1 4 L Fleury
20 11/19 Panthers road 2 3 L Johnson
21 11/21 Islanders home 5 0 W Fleury
22 11/23 Blues home 2 3 L/OT Fleury
23 11/25 Senators home 6 3 W Fleury
24 11/26 Canadiens road 4 3 W/OT Fleury
25 11/29 Rangers road 3 4 L Fleury
26 12/1 Capitals road 2 1 W Fleury
27 12/3 Hurricanes road 3 2 W Johnson
28 12/5 Bruins home 1 3 L Fleury
29 12/8 Flyers road 2 3 L Fleury
30 12/10 Islanders road 6 3 W Fleury
31 12/13 Red Wings home 1 4 L Fleury
32 12/16 Senators road 4 6 L Johnson
33 12/17 Sabres home 8 3 W Fleury
34 12/20 Blackhawks home 3 2 W Fleury
35 12/23 Jets road 4 1 W Fleury
36 12/27 Hurricanes home 4 2 W Fleury
37 12/29 Flyers home 2 4 L Fleury
38 12/31 Devils road 1 3 L Fleury
39 1/6 Rangers home 1 3 L Fleury
40 1/7 Devils home 1 3 L Fleury
41 1/10 Senators home 1 5 L Johnson
42 1/11 Capitals road 0 1 L Fleury
43 1/13 Panthers road 4 1 W Fleury
44 1/15 Lightning road 6 3 W Fleury
45 1/17 Hurricanes home 2 1 W/SO Fleury
46 1/19 Rangers road 4 1 W Fleury
47 1/20 Canadiens home 5 4 W/SO Fleury
48 1/22 Capitals home 4 3 W/OT Fleury
49 1/24 Blues road 3 2 W/SO Fleury
50 1/31 Maple Leafs home 5 4 W/SO Fleury
51 2/1 Maple Leafs road 0 1 L Johnson
52 2/4 Bruins road 2 1 W Fleury
53 2/5 Devils road 2 5 L Fleury
54 2/7 Canadiens road 2 3 L/SO Fleury
55 2/11 Jets home 8 5 W Fleury
56 2/12 Lightning home 4 2 W Johnson
57 2/15 Ducks home 1 2 L Fleury
58 2/18 Flyers road 6 4 W Fleury
59 2/19 Sabres road 2 6 L Johnson
60 2/21 Rangers home 2 0 W Fleury
Total       186 160 +26  
Avg       3.100 2.667 +0.433  

So far this year, the Penguins have compiled a record of 34-21-5, scoring an average of 3.1 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.667 goals per game. Their goal differential this year is +26, good for 6th in the league in that category. The Penguins have been extremely fortunate to not have any serious goaltender injuries this year (knock on wood), and so far have only had to start two goalies all season (Fleury and Johnson). At no point so far has a goalie other than one of those two seen any game time this season. The following table breaks down each goalie's season thus far:

Goaltender Games Avg GF Avg GA W ROW SOL L
Fleury 48 3.271 2.479 31 24 3 14
Johnson 12 2.417 3.417 3 3 2 7
Total 60     34 27 5 21
Diff   +0.854 -0.938        
Swing   1.792        

Johnson's role as the backup is very apparent, as Fleury has played 4 times as many games as Johnson has. Note that the wins, losses, etc. may not reflect that goalie's actual record, it is merely the results of games in which that goaltender started. Avg GF is the average number of goals the Penguins scored in games that goalie started, while Avg GA is the average number of goals allowed in the same situation (and is NOT the same as GAA, as that stat takes ice time and how many goals the goalie was actually in net for into account). On average, the Penguins scored 0.854 more goals and allowed 0.938 fewer goals in games where Marc-Andre Fleury was the starter compared to Brent Johnson. This means that if these rates held true and Fleury had started every game this season, the goal differential in Johnson's games needs to be adjusted in the Penguins' favor by 1.792 goals. Given that Johnson has lost 1 goal games with a high regularity this season, it could significantly affect the Penguins' standing had this trend held all season. The final table shows what might have happened in Johnson's games had Fleury been given the nod:

Game Date Opponent Venue GF GA Result Starting Goalie If Fleury
1 10/6 Canucks road 4 3 W/SO Fleury  
2 10/8 Flames road 5 3 W Fleury  
3 10/9 Oilers road 1 2 L/SO Johnson W
4 10/11 Panthers home 4 2 W Fleury  
5 10/13 Capitals home 2 3 L/OT Johnson W
6 10/15 Sabres home 2 3 L Fleury  
7 10/17 Jets road 1 2 L Fleury  
8 10/18 Wild road 4 2 W Johnson W
9 10/20 Canadiens home 3 1 W Fleury  
10 10/22 Devils home 4 1 W Fleury  
11 10/25 Islanders road 3 0 W Fleury  
12 10/27 Islanders home 3 2 W/SO Fleury  
13 10/29 Maple Leafs road 3 4 L Johnson W
14 11/3 Sharks road 3 4 L/SO Fleury  
15 11/5 Kings road 3 2 W/SO Fleury  
16 11/11 Stars home 3 1 W Fleury  
17 11/12 Hurricanes road 3 5 L Johnson O
18 11/15 Avalanche home 6 3 W Fleury  
19 11/17 Lightning road 1 4 L Fleury  
20 11/19 Panthers road 2 3 L Johnson W
21 11/21 Islanders home 5 0 W Fleury  
22 11/23 Blues home 2 3 L/OT Fleury  
23 11/25 Senators home 6 3 W Fleury  
24 11/26 Canadiens road 4 3 W/OT Fleury  
25 11/29 Rangers road 3 4 L Fleury  
26 12/1 Capitals road 2 1 W Fleury  
27 12/3 Hurricanes road 3 2 W Johnson W
28 12/5 Bruins home 1 3 L Fleury  
29 12/8 Flyers road 2 3 L Fleury  
30 12/10 Islanders road 6 3 W Fleury  
31 12/13 Red Wings home 1 4 L Fleury  
32 12/16 Senators road 4 6 L Johnson O
33 12/17 Sabres home 8 3 W Fleury  
34 12/20 Blackhawks home 3 2 W Fleury  
35 12/23 Jets road 4 1 W Fleury  
36 12/27 Hurricanes home 4 2 W Fleury  
37 12/29 Flyers home 2 4 L Fleury  
38 12/31 Devils road 1 3 L Fleury  
39 1/6 Rangers home 1 3 L Fleury  
40 1/7 Devils home 1 3 L Fleury  
41 1/10 Senators home 1 5 L Johnson L
42 1/11 Capitals road 0 1 L Fleury  
43 1/13 Panthers road 4 1 W Fleury  
44 1/15 Lightning road 6 3 W Fleury  
45 1/17 Hurricanes home 2 1 W/SO Fleury  
46 1/19 Rangers road 4 1 W Fleury  
47 1/20 Canadiens home 5 4 W/SO Fleury  
48 1/22 Capitals home 4 3 W/OT Fleury  
49 1/24 Blues road 3 2 W/SO Fleury  
50 1/31 Maple Leafs home 5 4 W/SO Fleury  
51 2/1 Maple Leafs road 0 1 L Johnson W
52 2/4 Bruins road 2 1 W Fleury  
53 2/5 Devils road 2 5 L Fleury  
54 2/7 Canadiens road 2 3 L/SO Fleury  
55 2/11 Jets home 8 5 W Fleury  
56 2/12 Lightning home 4 2 W Johnson W
57 2/15 Ducks home 1 2 L Fleury  
58 2/18 Flyers road 6 4 W Fleury  
59 2/19 Sabres road 2 6 L Johnson L
60 2/21 Rangers home 2 0 W Fleury  
Total       186 160 +26   8-2-2
Avg       3.100 2.667 +0.433    

For the sake of argument, any games which resulted in a tie score after adjustment have been recorded as overtime losses. Rounding up the 1.792 goals to a 2 goal swing, we can see that 5 of Johnson's losses would have been wins (in addition to the 3 games which were already wins), and a further 2 losses would gain the Penguins at least a point in each. The 6-game losing streak would not be affected, however, as Johnson's loss during that stretch was by a large margin. Instead of the 3-7-2 record, the Penguins would have posted a record of 8-2-2 during these games, bringing their overall record to 39-16-5, or 83 points and first place in the eastern conference, 1 point off of Detroit for first place in the league.

This is not to say that these results absolutely would have happened had Fleury started every game, as it does not take many factors into account, including fatigue, slumps, travel time, playing a game less than 24 hours after a tough divisional matchup, etc. etc., not to mention playing that many games in a row could lead to injury for Fleury. But nonetheless it is interesting to see what might have been.