Stats: What if Marc-Andre Fleury had started every game this season?

First let me start by saying that I am a huge fan of Brent Johnson. From his love of Led Zeppelin (prominently displayed on his goalie mask) to his leadership role in the Pens' locker room, he is a favorite of both fans and players alike. Still, it can't be contended that he has struggled mightily so far this season, culminating in the meltdown in Buffalo over the weekend. Okay, maybe that was unfair: the Penguins as a team have struggled to post Ws when Johnny is given the nod in goal. The team has a record of just 3-7-2 when Johnson is the starting goaltender. This table breaks down all of the games so far this season:

Game	Date	Opponent	Venue	GF	GA	Result	Starting Goalie
1	10/6	Canucks	road	4	3	W/SO	Fleury
2	10/8	Flames	road	5	3	W	Fleury
3	10/9	Oilers	road	1	2	L/SO	Johnson
4	10/11	Panthers	home	4	2	W	Fleury
5	10/13	Capitals	home	2	3	L/OT	Johnson
6	10/15	Sabres	home	2	3	L	Fleury
7	10/17	Jets	road	1	2	L	Fleury
8	10/18	Wild	road	4	2	W	Johnson
9	10/20	Canadiens	home	3	1	W	Fleury
10	10/22	Devils	home	4	1	W	Fleury
11	10/25	Islanders	road	3	0	W	Fleury
12	10/27	Islanders	home	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
13	10/29	Maple Leafs	road	3	4	L	Johnson
14	11/3	Sharks	road	3	4	L/SO	Fleury
15	11/5	Kings	road	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
16	11/11	Stars	home	3	1	W	Fleury
17	11/12	Hurricanes	road	3	5	L	Johnson
18	11/15	Avalanche	home	6	3	W	Fleury
19	11/17	Lightning	road	1	4	L	Fleury
20	11/19	Panthers	road	2	3	L	Johnson
21	11/21	Islanders	home	5	0	W	Fleury
22	11/23	Blues	home	2	3	L/OT	Fleury
23	11/25	Senators	home	6	3	W	Fleury
24	11/26	Canadiens	road	4	3	W/OT	Fleury
25	11/29	Rangers	road	3	4	L	Fleury
26	12/1	Capitals	road	2	1	W	Fleury
27	12/3	Hurricanes	road	3	2	W	Johnson
28	12/5	Bruins	home	1	3	L	Fleury
29	12/8	Flyers	road	2	3	L	Fleury
30	12/10	Islanders	road	6	3	W	Fleury
31	12/13	Red Wings	home	1	4	L	Fleury
32	12/16	Senators	road	4	6	L	Johnson
33	12/17	Sabres	home	8	3	W	Fleury
34	12/20	Blackhawks	home	3	2	W	Fleury
35	12/23	Jets	road	4	1	W	Fleury
36	12/27	Hurricanes	home	4	2	W	Fleury
37	12/29	Flyers	home	2	4	L	Fleury
38	12/31	Devils	road	1	3	L	Fleury
39	1/6	Rangers	home	1	3	L	Fleury
40	1/7	Devils	home	1	3	L	Fleury
41	1/10	Senators	home	1	5	L	Johnson
42	1/11	Capitals	road	0	1	L	Fleury
43	1/13	Panthers	road	4	1	W	Fleury
44	1/15	Lightning	road	6	3	W	Fleury
45	1/17	Hurricanes	home	2	1	W/SO	Fleury
46	1/19	Rangers	road	4	1	W	Fleury
47	1/20	Canadiens	home	5	4	W/SO	Fleury
48	1/22	Capitals	home	4	3	W/OT	Fleury
49	1/24	Blues	road	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
50	1/31	Maple Leafs	home	5	4	W/SO	Fleury
51	2/1	Maple Leafs	road	0	1	L	Johnson
52	2/4	Bruins	road	2	1	W	Fleury
53	2/5	Devils	road	2	5	L	Fleury
54	2/7	Canadiens	road	2	3	L/SO	Fleury
55	2/11	Jets	home	8	5	W	Fleury
56	2/12	Lightning	home	4	2	W	Johnson
57	2/15	Ducks	home	1	2	L	Fleury
58	2/18	Flyers	road	6	4	W	Fleury
59	2/19	Sabres	road	2	6	L	Johnson
60	2/21	Rangers	home	2	0	W	Fleury
Total				186	160	+26
Avg				3.100	2.667	+0.433

So far this year, the Penguins have compiled a record of 34-21-5, scoring an average of 3.1 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.667 goals per game. Their goal differential this year is +26, good for 6th in the league in that category. The Penguins have been extremely fortunate to not have any serious goaltender injuries this year (knock on wood), and so far have only had to start two goalies all season (Fleury and Johnson). At no point so far has a goalie other than one of those two seen any game time this season. The following table breaks down each goalie's season thus far:

Goaltender	Games	Avg GF	Avg GA	W	ROW	SOL	L
Fleury	48	3.271	2.479	31	24	3	14
Johnson	12	2.417	3.417	3	3	2	7
Total	60			34	27	5	21
Diff		+0.854	-0.938
Swing		1.792

Johnson's role as the backup is very apparent, as Fleury has played 4 times as many games as Johnson has. Note that the wins, losses, etc. may not reflect that goalie's actual record, it is merely the results of games in which that goaltender started. Avg GF is the average number of goals the Penguins scored in games that goalie started, while Avg GA is the average number of goals allowed in the same situation (and is NOT the same as GAA, as that stat takes ice time and how many goals the goalie was actually in net for into account). On average, the Penguins scored 0.854 more goals and allowed 0.938 fewer goals in games where Marc-Andre Fleury was the starter compared to Brent Johnson. This means that if these rates held true and Fleury had started every game this season, the goal differential in Johnson's games needs to be adjusted in the Penguins' favor by 1.792 goals. Given that Johnson has lost 1 goal games with a high regularity this season, it could significantly affect the Penguins' standing had this trend held all season. The final table shows what might have happened in Johnson's games had Fleury been given the nod:

Game	Date	Opponent	Venue	GF	GA	Result	Starting Goalie	If Fleury
1	10/6	Canucks	road	4	3	W/SO	Fleury
2	10/8	Flames	road	5	3	W	Fleury
3	10/9	Oilers	road	1	2	L/SO	Johnson	W
4	10/11	Panthers	home	4	2	W	Fleury
5	10/13	Capitals	home	2	3	L/OT	Johnson	W
6	10/15	Sabres	home	2	3	L	Fleury
7	10/17	Jets	road	1	2	L	Fleury
8	10/18	Wild	road	4	2	W	Johnson	W
9	10/20	Canadiens	home	3	1	W	Fleury
10	10/22	Devils	home	4	1	W	Fleury
11	10/25	Islanders	road	3	0	W	Fleury
12	10/27	Islanders	home	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
13	10/29	Maple Leafs	road	3	4	L	Johnson	W
14	11/3	Sharks	road	3	4	L/SO	Fleury
15	11/5	Kings	road	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
16	11/11	Stars	home	3	1	W	Fleury
17	11/12	Hurricanes	road	3	5	L	Johnson	O
18	11/15	Avalanche	home	6	3	W	Fleury
19	11/17	Lightning	road	1	4	L	Fleury
20	11/19	Panthers	road	2	3	L	Johnson	W
21	11/21	Islanders	home	5	0	W	Fleury
22	11/23	Blues	home	2	3	L/OT	Fleury
23	11/25	Senators	home	6	3	W	Fleury
24	11/26	Canadiens	road	4	3	W/OT	Fleury
25	11/29	Rangers	road	3	4	L	Fleury
26	12/1	Capitals	road	2	1	W	Fleury
27	12/3	Hurricanes	road	3	2	W	Johnson	W
28	12/5	Bruins	home	1	3	L	Fleury
29	12/8	Flyers	road	2	3	L	Fleury
30	12/10	Islanders	road	6	3	W	Fleury
31	12/13	Red Wings	home	1	4	L	Fleury
32	12/16	Senators	road	4	6	L	Johnson	O
33	12/17	Sabres	home	8	3	W	Fleury
34	12/20	Blackhawks	home	3	2	W	Fleury
35	12/23	Jets	road	4	1	W	Fleury
36	12/27	Hurricanes	home	4	2	W	Fleury
37	12/29	Flyers	home	2	4	L	Fleury
38	12/31	Devils	road	1	3	L	Fleury
39	1/6	Rangers	home	1	3	L	Fleury
40	1/7	Devils	home	1	3	L	Fleury
41	1/10	Senators	home	1	5	L	Johnson	L
42	1/11	Capitals	road	0	1	L	Fleury
43	1/13	Panthers	road	4	1	W	Fleury
44	1/15	Lightning	road	6	3	W	Fleury
45	1/17	Hurricanes	home	2	1	W/SO	Fleury
46	1/19	Rangers	road	4	1	W	Fleury
47	1/20	Canadiens	home	5	4	W/SO	Fleury
48	1/22	Capitals	home	4	3	W/OT	Fleury
49	1/24	Blues	road	3	2	W/SO	Fleury
50	1/31	Maple Leafs	home	5	4	W/SO	Fleury
51	2/1	Maple Leafs	road	0	1	L	Johnson	W
52	2/4	Bruins	road	2	1	W	Fleury
53	2/5	Devils	road	2	5	L	Fleury
54	2/7	Canadiens	road	2	3	L/SO	Fleury
55	2/11	Jets	home	8	5	W	Fleury
56	2/12	Lightning	home	4	2	W	Johnson	W
57	2/15	Ducks	home	1	2	L	Fleury
58	2/18	Flyers	road	6	4	W	Fleury
59	2/19	Sabres	road	2	6	L	Johnson	L
60	2/21	Rangers	home	2	0	W	Fleury
Total				186	160	+26		8-2-2
Avg				3.100	2.667	+0.433

For the sake of argument, any games which resulted in a tie score after adjustment have been recorded as overtime losses. Rounding up the 1.792 goals to a 2 goal swing, we can see that 5 of Johnson's losses would have been wins (in addition to the 3 games which were already wins), and a further 2 losses would gain the Penguins at least a point in each. The 6-game losing streak would not be affected, however, as Johnson's loss during that stretch was by a large margin. Instead of the 3-7-2 record, the Penguins would have posted a record of 8-2-2 during these games, bringing their overall record to 39-16-5, or 83 points and first place in the eastern conference, 1 point off of Detroit for first place in the league.

This is not to say that these results absolutely would have happened had Fleury started every game, as it does not take many factors into account, including fatigue, slumps, travel time, playing a game less than 24 hours after a tough divisional matchup, etc. etc., not to mention playing that many games in a row could lead to injury for Fleury. But nonetheless it is interesting to see what might have been.