Thursday, September 20, 2012
Monday, June 25, 2012
Potential Trade Targets for the Pirates: American League
The Pirates are currently 5 games over .500 and 1 game out of the division lead. They will almost certainly be buyers at the trade deadline. So from the teams who will probably be sellers, here are the players, whether probable or purely a dream, I would like to see in a Pirates uniform come August.
AL East
Yeah right, none of these teams are selling.
AL Central
Indians
Hard to tell what this team will do at the deadline. While they are currently contending for their division, their -45 run differential suggests they will fall off at some point. If they are sellers at the trade deadline, I would love to see the Pirates go after Asdrubal Cabrera. He has 2 years left on his contract after this year, but the Indians might not want to trade him. Maybe they could nab him for one or two of the AAA pitchers if the Indians are looking to shed salary at the deadline. Still, have to think he's one of the Indians' most coveted assests, so he most likely won't be available. They might be more willing to give up Shin-Soo Choo for cheap, however, as he is up for arbitration next year.
Tigers
A team that is really underachieving this year, the Tigers could be sellers if they don't turn their season around in a hurry. A potential bat could be OF Austin Jackson, who has a miniscule $500K 1-year contract with the Tigers and has hit well in limited play. Again, the Tigers biggest need is pitching, so maybe a minor league pitcher or two could land Jackson.
Royals
The Royals have been hit hard with injuries this year, and are most likely already out of their division race. The Pirates could take a chance on aging RF Jeff Francoeur, or they could look to try and get a longer-term solution at SS with Alcides Escobar. Francouer probably could be had for a prospect or draft pick, Escobar might take a little more to get.
Twins
The Twins most likely are looking to start a youth movement with two disappointing seasons after winning back-to-back division titles. One name that keeps popping up for the Pirates is OF Josh Willingham, and it's pretty easy to see why. He has great numbers on the season, and despite just signing a longish contract with the Twins, if they are looking to dump salary, he could probably be gotten for a couple low prospects or draft picks. Another potential is 1B Justin Morneau, but who might be a little pricey for the notoriously thrifty Pirates ($15M/year). But if NH is serious about spending more this year, he could be a great pickup for a couple of years. Or perhaps a deal could be worked similar to the Burnett deal, where the Twins pick up some of his salary.
AL West
Athletics
Oakland is in a tough division to win, and most likely will not be a contender for a wild card spot with so many good AL East teams in the picture, but they have been playing much better of late and may not be sellers at the deadline after all. But if they are, they may be willing to give up on LF Seth Smith (arb. next year) or, if the Pirates are willing to give up quite a bit, Josh Reddick.
Mariners
Seattle has struggled all year, and they are firmly in the AL West basement. Potential names they could be selling are Dustin Ackely, who has one more year on his contract after this season. If the Pirates really want to make a splash, they could try to finagle away INF Kyle Seagar, who has spent time at 3rd, SS, and 2nd. It would probably take some big chips to get him, though.
AL East
Yeah right, none of these teams are selling.
AL Central
Indians
Hard to tell what this team will do at the deadline. While they are currently contending for their division, their -45 run differential suggests they will fall off at some point. If they are sellers at the trade deadline, I would love to see the Pirates go after Asdrubal Cabrera. He has 2 years left on his contract after this year, but the Indians might not want to trade him. Maybe they could nab him for one or two of the AAA pitchers if the Indians are looking to shed salary at the deadline. Still, have to think he's one of the Indians' most coveted assests, so he most likely won't be available. They might be more willing to give up Shin-Soo Choo for cheap, however, as he is up for arbitration next year.
Tigers
A team that is really underachieving this year, the Tigers could be sellers if they don't turn their season around in a hurry. A potential bat could be OF Austin Jackson, who has a miniscule $500K 1-year contract with the Tigers and has hit well in limited play. Again, the Tigers biggest need is pitching, so maybe a minor league pitcher or two could land Jackson.
Royals
The Royals have been hit hard with injuries this year, and are most likely already out of their division race. The Pirates could take a chance on aging RF Jeff Francoeur, or they could look to try and get a longer-term solution at SS with Alcides Escobar. Francouer probably could be had for a prospect or draft pick, Escobar might take a little more to get.
Twins
The Twins most likely are looking to start a youth movement with two disappointing seasons after winning back-to-back division titles. One name that keeps popping up for the Pirates is OF Josh Willingham, and it's pretty easy to see why. He has great numbers on the season, and despite just signing a longish contract with the Twins, if they are looking to dump salary, he could probably be gotten for a couple low prospects or draft picks. Another potential is 1B Justin Morneau, but who might be a little pricey for the notoriously thrifty Pirates ($15M/year). But if NH is serious about spending more this year, he could be a great pickup for a couple of years. Or perhaps a deal could be worked similar to the Burnett deal, where the Twins pick up some of his salary.
AL West
Athletics
Oakland is in a tough division to win, and most likely will not be a contender for a wild card spot with so many good AL East teams in the picture, but they have been playing much better of late and may not be sellers at the deadline after all. But if they are, they may be willing to give up on LF Seth Smith (arb. next year) or, if the Pirates are willing to give up quite a bit, Josh Reddick.
Mariners
Seattle has struggled all year, and they are firmly in the AL West basement. Potential names they could be selling are Dustin Ackely, who has one more year on his contract after this season. If the Pirates really want to make a splash, they could try to finagle away INF Kyle Seagar, who has spent time at 3rd, SS, and 2nd. It would probably take some big chips to get him, though.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
My Proposal for a College Football Playoff: Get Your Brackets Ready
Most people who are not entirely delusional or insane have come to realize in the past few years that college football, and more specifically the BCS System in college football Division I-A, is fundamentally broken. "National Champions" currently are not entirely decided by head-to-head matchups and the NCAA as most feel they should be. Instead they are still ultimately decided by the results of polls by journalists and coaches. While so far these polls have mostly reflected the winner of the BCS "National Championship" Game (the Coaches Poll is contractually obligated to vote the winner of the game as #1), the AP Poll is not required to do so and if they decide to vote unranked Eastwestern Tech to number 1, then the AP "National Champion" for that year will be recorded as such. This happened in 2003, when USC was not asked to participate in the BCS "National Championship" Game, but was still voted as #1 in the AP Poll. Therefore, 2003 is recorded as having 2 "National Champions", USC and LSU. Many people, myself included, feel that this is an incredibly stupid way to determine the best team in the land, and have demanded that a playoff system be instituted.
Currently, things are progressing smoothly toward a 4-team playoff system. While it is great that there is a playoff at all, for me it is just not quite enough. No other major sport in North America has a playoff system smaller than 10 teams, so why should college football (especially with the number of colleges in the BCS)? But expanding past 4 begs some very big questions, such as: how to set such a playoff up? Should there be 8, 12, 16 or more teams involved? Where and when would these games be played? And what of the bowls, the reward for smaller, less talented schools who otherwise would have their season end? Would they still be played? I attempt to answer these questions below.
The Teams
As of last season (2011), there were 120 schools that fielded a team in Division I-A football. Of those teams, how many should be eligible for the new playoff system? My belief is there should be 16 teams, and I will outline my reasons for picking that number in this section.
The NCAA Division I Men's Basketball tournament is widely considered one of the most exciting yet balanced postseasons in all of college sports. This is because they guarantee spots for each of the 32 conference winners that compete in their respective postseason tournaments (or the regular season winner for the Ivy League). While conference tournaments would be impractical, we already have ways of determining conference champions in place, and these should not change for the new playoff system. Conferences with 12 or more teams would have their divisions compete in a conference championship game, while smaller leagues would have their champion decided by regular season play (with tie-breakers decided however the conference agrees upon).
Looking ahead to the 2016 season, the conferences will look like this for football (assuming nothing else changes between now and then):
ACC (14): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse
Big 12 (10): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, WVU
Big East (13): Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Boise State, SDSU, Navy
Big Ten (12): Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Nebraska
C-USA (14): NC Charlotte, UAB, Southern Miss, Tulane, ECU, Marshall, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, FIU, LA Tech, Old Dominion, North Texas, UTSA
MAC (13): Ohio, Miami U, Western Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois, Akron, Buffalo, UMass
MWC (10): Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State
Pac-12 (12): Cal, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
SEC (14): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri
Sun Belt (10): Georgia State, South Alabama, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State, LA-Lafayette, Middle Tenn State, LA-Monroe, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Texas State
WAC (2): Idaho, New Mexico State
Independents (3): Army, BYU, Notre Dame
Let's assume that in this scenario the WAC has folded as a football conference, with Idaho going to, say, the MAC and New Mexico State to the Sun Belt. Then, in our 16-team playoff, we have 10 conference champions as automatic bids and 6 at-large selections which are to be chosen by a selection committee similar to the one used in basketball. This committee would also determine seeding in the bracket.
With at large spots available this leaves the door open for Notre Dame, BYU, and even Army to claim a spot in the dance if they are deemed worthy. There will always be grumbling by fans of unpicked teams no matter who is picked, just as there is in basketball; this is an issue that will never be avoided and will have to be lived with in any scenario that does not involve every single team in a playoff, a logistics nightmare.
Where
As in, where will these games be played? As the BCS is currently set up, four bowls reign supreme: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose, the 4 BCS Bowls. So, why not use these locations in our playoff? And while we're at it, let's throw in two more formerly-major bowls: the Cotton Bowl and the Citrus (Capital One) Bowl. These six locations will be permanent fixtures in the new playoff format. Before we get any further, let's look at a hypothetical bracket for reference (based on the 2011 season top teams and conference champions as they would be in our hypothetical 2016 conference makeups):
The first round of games will be played at the higher seed's home field. This ensures an incentive to be one of the top 8 teams in the country as those teams will have home field advantage. As you can see, each conference has at least one representative, along with the 6 At-Large teams. Round 2 games will be played in 4 bowls: Orange, Citrus (Capital One), Cotton, and Fiesta. The East Final will be decided in the Sugar Bowl, while the West Final will be decided in the Rose Bowl. The Championship Game will take place in a rotating location, similar to the way the NFL's Super Bowl is played. Possible locations include Cowboys Stadium, Lucas Oil Stadium, Ford Field, Raymond James Stadium, Metrodome, etc.
When
Currently, the season ends with the Army-Navy game played in Week 15, usually in the 2nd week of December. This works well for the two schools because they are both currently independents. But what happens when Navy joins the Big East in a few years? I understand that the game is definitely important enough to deserve its own day, but I don't think that it really needs to have its own week. So for the purposes of this proposal, the Army-Navy Game will take place in Week 14, and will be the only game of the day it is on (most likely Thursday or Friday). So, our hypothetical football regular season schedule will end on Saturday, December 3, 2016, and the playoffs will begin the following week. The opening round will consist of 8 games, which I have divided thusly: 2 games on Thursday, December 8, one at 7pm and one at 10pm, which will be a match in an EST or CST stadium and a PST or MST stadium respectively; 2 games on Friday, December 9, with the same times and time zone matchups as Thursday; and finally, 4 games on Saturday, December 10, with games at 12pm*, 3pm, 6pm, and 9pm. On Saturday, any remaining western teams would have precedence for the later time slots. All of these games would be played at the home field of the higher seed. Hawaii is considered a PST stadium for purposes of time-slotting.
For round 2, we have 4 games to play, and all of these games will take place on Saturday, December 17. First will be the Orange Bowl, which will be played at 12pm. Second will be the Citrus Bowl, which will take place at 3pm. Third, the Cotton Bowl will be played at 6pm. And finally, the Fiesta Bowl will be played at 9pm.
After these games, the non-playoff bowls will begin. All playoff teams will have a bye week and will resume play on December 30.
For the semi-finals round on December 30, we have the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. The Tournament of Roses Parade will take place in the morning as usual, and the Rose Bowl game will be played at 4pm. The Sugar Bowl will be played at 8pm.
Finally, the National Championship will be played as the last game of the year on January 7, 2017, at a location that will be bid upon a la the Super Bowl. Hypothetically, for this season, it is in Cowboys Stadium.
The full post-season schedule looks like this (playoff games in bold):
Thursday, December 8
7pm Round 1 matchup (Clemson at Arkansas)
10pm Round 1 matchup (South Carolina at Boise State)
Friday, December 9
7pm Round 1 matchup (Wyoming at Alabama)
10pm Round 1 matchup (N. Illinois at Stanford)
Saturday, December 10
12pm Round 1 matchup (Arkansas State at LSU)
3pm Round 1 matchup (Wisconsin at Kansas State)
6pm Round 1 matchup (Southern Miss at OK State)
9pm Round 1 matchup (Virginia Tech at Oregon)
Saturday, December 17
12pm Discover Orange Bowl, Miami, FL (Ark. State/LSU vs. S. Carolina/Boise State)
3pm Capital One Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL (S. Miss/OK State vs. Clemson/Arkansas)
6pm AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX (Wyoming/Alabama vs. Wisconsin/K State)
9pm Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ (N. Illinois/Stanford vs. Va. Tech/Oregon)
Monday, December 19:
8pm S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA
Tuesday, December 20:
8pm R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans, LA
Wednesday, December 21:
8pm Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl, St. Petersburg, FL
Thursday, December 22
8pm Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise, ID
Friday, December 23
8pm Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM
Saturday, December 24
12pm Belk Bowl, Charlotte, NC
4pm MAACO Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, NV
8pm Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, HI
Monday, December 26
12pm Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, Dallas, TX
4pm Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, San Diego, CA
8pm Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, FL
Tuesday, December 27
4pm Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman, Washington, DC
8pm Valero Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, TX
Wednesday, December 28
4pm New Era Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY
8pm Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl, Houston, TX
Thursday, December 29
12pm Hyundai Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
4pm AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
8pm Insight Bowl, Tempe, AZ
Friday, December 30
12pm AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, Shreveport, LA
4pm Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, San Francisco, CA
8pm Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, GA
Saturday, December 31
Morning: Tournament of Roses Parade
4pm Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio, Pasadena, CA
8pm Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, LA
Monday, January 2
12pm TicketCity Bowl, Dallas, TX
4pm Outback Bowl, Tampa, FL
8pm Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, FL
Tuesday, January 3
8pm Little Caesars Bowl, Detroit, MI
Wednesday, January 4
8pm Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Nashville, TN
Thursday, January 5
8pm BBVA Compass Bowl, Birmingham, AL
Friday. January 6
8pm GoDaddy.com Bowl, Mobile, AL
Saturday, January 7
8:30pm Allstate NCAA Division I-A Football National Championship Game, Dallas, TX
Of course, non-playoff bowls can fight out what dates and times they want, I am merely attempting to slot in all current bowls.
*All times EST
FAQs:
Q: But wait, what about academics? Will this affect final exams?
A: No. Most schools schedule their finals on the third week in December, which in this case would be December 12-17. In this format, there are no football games scheduled during those days except December 17. Currently, bowl games are played and basketball games are scheduled on the last day of finals (Saturday), so if they can be worked around, so can our playoff games.
Q: With a playoff system like this, why would anyone watch the other bowl games?
A: Nobody really watches them now, other than fans that have teams in the games, so I don't really see the difference. The major bowls, the ones more people watch, have been made into playoff games.
Q: Will teams with a 6-6 record still be selected for bowls?
A: Most likely, unless the number of non-playoff bowls shrinks (Pretty unlikely, as everyone wants to make more money). 6 more teams are added to post-season play with the opening playoff round, so I suppose there will be 6 more teams with 6-6 records (or worse!) selected for various bowls. I personally would rather get rid of the bowls altogether, but I can see why teams and especially corporations want them to still be played. So the result is mediocre teams playing in bowls. The bowl system right now is such a monster cash cow that it would be impossible to get rid of the bowls right away. Maybe a slow removal of lesser bowls over time is possible, but I don't know. Certainly there should be no new bowls created.
Q: So with this new system we could do bracket pools for football?
A: Absolutely! No one that I know of does Bowl contests or pools (except ESPN), and this would be as great for various interested parties as March Madness is for basketball. Call it December Dementia (that's actually a terrible name, but you get the point).
Currently, things are progressing smoothly toward a 4-team playoff system. While it is great that there is a playoff at all, for me it is just not quite enough. No other major sport in North America has a playoff system smaller than 10 teams, so why should college football (especially with the number of colleges in the BCS)? But expanding past 4 begs some very big questions, such as: how to set such a playoff up? Should there be 8, 12, 16 or more teams involved? Where and when would these games be played? And what of the bowls, the reward for smaller, less talented schools who otherwise would have their season end? Would they still be played? I attempt to answer these questions below.
The Teams
As of last season (2011), there were 120 schools that fielded a team in Division I-A football. Of those teams, how many should be eligible for the new playoff system? My belief is there should be 16 teams, and I will outline my reasons for picking that number in this section.
The NCAA Division I Men's Basketball tournament is widely considered one of the most exciting yet balanced postseasons in all of college sports. This is because they guarantee spots for each of the 32 conference winners that compete in their respective postseason tournaments (or the regular season winner for the Ivy League). While conference tournaments would be impractical, we already have ways of determining conference champions in place, and these should not change for the new playoff system. Conferences with 12 or more teams would have their divisions compete in a conference championship game, while smaller leagues would have their champion decided by regular season play (with tie-breakers decided however the conference agrees upon).
Looking ahead to the 2016 season, the conferences will look like this for football (assuming nothing else changes between now and then):
ACC (14): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse
Big 12 (10): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, WVU
Big East (13): Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Boise State, SDSU, Navy
Big Ten (12): Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Nebraska
C-USA (14): NC Charlotte, UAB, Southern Miss, Tulane, ECU, Marshall, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, FIU, LA Tech, Old Dominion, North Texas, UTSA
MAC (13): Ohio, Miami U, Western Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois, Akron, Buffalo, UMass
MWC (10): Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State
Pac-12 (12): Cal, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
SEC (14): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri
Sun Belt (10): Georgia State, South Alabama, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State, LA-Lafayette, Middle Tenn State, LA-Monroe, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Texas State
WAC (2): Idaho, New Mexico State
Independents (3): Army, BYU, Notre Dame
Let's assume that in this scenario the WAC has folded as a football conference, with Idaho going to, say, the MAC and New Mexico State to the Sun Belt. Then, in our 16-team playoff, we have 10 conference champions as automatic bids and 6 at-large selections which are to be chosen by a selection committee similar to the one used in basketball. This committee would also determine seeding in the bracket.
With at large spots available this leaves the door open for Notre Dame, BYU, and even Army to claim a spot in the dance if they are deemed worthy. There will always be grumbling by fans of unpicked teams no matter who is picked, just as there is in basketball; this is an issue that will never be avoided and will have to be lived with in any scenario that does not involve every single team in a playoff, a logistics nightmare.
Where
As in, where will these games be played? As the BCS is currently set up, four bowls reign supreme: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose, the 4 BCS Bowls. So, why not use these locations in our playoff? And while we're at it, let's throw in two more formerly-major bowls: the Cotton Bowl and the Citrus (Capital One) Bowl. These six locations will be permanent fixtures in the new playoff format. Before we get any further, let's look at a hypothetical bracket for reference (based on the 2011 season top teams and conference champions as they would be in our hypothetical 2016 conference makeups):
The first round of games will be played at the higher seed's home field. This ensures an incentive to be one of the top 8 teams in the country as those teams will have home field advantage. As you can see, each conference has at least one representative, along with the 6 At-Large teams. Round 2 games will be played in 4 bowls: Orange, Citrus (Capital One), Cotton, and Fiesta. The East Final will be decided in the Sugar Bowl, while the West Final will be decided in the Rose Bowl. The Championship Game will take place in a rotating location, similar to the way the NFL's Super Bowl is played. Possible locations include Cowboys Stadium, Lucas Oil Stadium, Ford Field, Raymond James Stadium, Metrodome, etc.
When
Currently, the season ends with the Army-Navy game played in Week 15, usually in the 2nd week of December. This works well for the two schools because they are both currently independents. But what happens when Navy joins the Big East in a few years? I understand that the game is definitely important enough to deserve its own day, but I don't think that it really needs to have its own week. So for the purposes of this proposal, the Army-Navy Game will take place in Week 14, and will be the only game of the day it is on (most likely Thursday or Friday). So, our hypothetical football regular season schedule will end on Saturday, December 3, 2016, and the playoffs will begin the following week. The opening round will consist of 8 games, which I have divided thusly: 2 games on Thursday, December 8, one at 7pm and one at 10pm, which will be a match in an EST or CST stadium and a PST or MST stadium respectively; 2 games on Friday, December 9, with the same times and time zone matchups as Thursday; and finally, 4 games on Saturday, December 10, with games at 12pm*, 3pm, 6pm, and 9pm. On Saturday, any remaining western teams would have precedence for the later time slots. All of these games would be played at the home field of the higher seed. Hawaii is considered a PST stadium for purposes of time-slotting.
For round 2, we have 4 games to play, and all of these games will take place on Saturday, December 17. First will be the Orange Bowl, which will be played at 12pm. Second will be the Citrus Bowl, which will take place at 3pm. Third, the Cotton Bowl will be played at 6pm. And finally, the Fiesta Bowl will be played at 9pm.
After these games, the non-playoff bowls will begin. All playoff teams will have a bye week and will resume play on December 30.
For the semi-finals round on December 30, we have the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. The Tournament of Roses Parade will take place in the morning as usual, and the Rose Bowl game will be played at 4pm. The Sugar Bowl will be played at 8pm.
Finally, the National Championship will be played as the last game of the year on January 7, 2017, at a location that will be bid upon a la the Super Bowl. Hypothetically, for this season, it is in Cowboys Stadium.
The full post-season schedule looks like this (playoff games in bold):
Thursday, December 8
7pm Round 1 matchup (Clemson at Arkansas)
10pm Round 1 matchup (South Carolina at Boise State)
Friday, December 9
7pm Round 1 matchup (Wyoming at Alabama)
10pm Round 1 matchup (N. Illinois at Stanford)
Saturday, December 10
12pm Round 1 matchup (Arkansas State at LSU)
3pm Round 1 matchup (Wisconsin at Kansas State)
6pm Round 1 matchup (Southern Miss at OK State)
9pm Round 1 matchup (Virginia Tech at Oregon)
Saturday, December 17
12pm Discover Orange Bowl, Miami, FL (Ark. State/LSU vs. S. Carolina/Boise State)
3pm Capital One Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL (S. Miss/OK State vs. Clemson/Arkansas)
6pm AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX (Wyoming/Alabama vs. Wisconsin/K State)
9pm Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ (N. Illinois/Stanford vs. Va. Tech/Oregon)
Monday, December 19:
8pm S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA
Tuesday, December 20:
8pm R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans, LA
Wednesday, December 21:
8pm Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl, St. Petersburg, FL
Thursday, December 22
8pm Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise, ID
Friday, December 23
8pm Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM
Saturday, December 24
12pm Belk Bowl, Charlotte, NC
4pm MAACO Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, NV
8pm Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, HI
Monday, December 26
12pm Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, Dallas, TX
4pm Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, San Diego, CA
8pm Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, FL
Tuesday, December 27
4pm Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman, Washington, DC
8pm Valero Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, TX
Wednesday, December 28
4pm New Era Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY
8pm Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl, Houston, TX
Thursday, December 29
12pm Hyundai Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
4pm AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
8pm Insight Bowl, Tempe, AZ
Friday, December 30
12pm AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, Shreveport, LA
4pm Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, San Francisco, CA
8pm Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, GA
Saturday, December 31
Morning: Tournament of Roses Parade
4pm Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio, Pasadena, CA
8pm Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, LA
Monday, January 2
12pm TicketCity Bowl, Dallas, TX
4pm Outback Bowl, Tampa, FL
8pm Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, FL
Tuesday, January 3
8pm Little Caesars Bowl, Detroit, MI
Wednesday, January 4
8pm Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Nashville, TN
Thursday, January 5
8pm BBVA Compass Bowl, Birmingham, AL
Friday. January 6
8pm GoDaddy.com Bowl, Mobile, AL
Saturday, January 7
8:30pm Allstate NCAA Division I-A Football National Championship Game, Dallas, TX
Of course, non-playoff bowls can fight out what dates and times they want, I am merely attempting to slot in all current bowls.
*All times EST
FAQs:
Q: But wait, what about academics? Will this affect final exams?
A: No. Most schools schedule their finals on the third week in December, which in this case would be December 12-17. In this format, there are no football games scheduled during those days except December 17. Currently, bowl games are played and basketball games are scheduled on the last day of finals (Saturday), so if they can be worked around, so can our playoff games.
Q: With a playoff system like this, why would anyone watch the other bowl games?
A: Nobody really watches them now, other than fans that have teams in the games, so I don't really see the difference. The major bowls, the ones more people watch, have been made into playoff games.
Q: Will teams with a 6-6 record still be selected for bowls?
A: Most likely, unless the number of non-playoff bowls shrinks (Pretty unlikely, as everyone wants to make more money). 6 more teams are added to post-season play with the opening playoff round, so I suppose there will be 6 more teams with 6-6 records (or worse!) selected for various bowls. I personally would rather get rid of the bowls altogether, but I can see why teams and especially corporations want them to still be played. So the result is mediocre teams playing in bowls. The bowl system right now is such a monster cash cow that it would be impossible to get rid of the bowls right away. Maybe a slow removal of lesser bowls over time is possible, but I don't know. Certainly there should be no new bowls created.
Q: So with this new system we could do bracket pools for football?
A: Absolutely! No one that I know of does Bowl contests or pools (except ESPN), and this would be as great for various interested parties as March Madness is for basketball. Call it December Dementia (that's actually a terrible name, but you get the point).
Thursday, April 5, 2012
10 Predictions for the 2012 Pirates Season
Here are my 10 somewhat bold predictions for the 2012 season.
- A slight increase over the 2011 season (72-90), I'll go with a win loss of 74-88.
- Returning SP will regress, but the additions of Bedard and later Burnett will balance out the bad pitching from the other 3 starters.
- Pedro Alvarez finally starts to develop a decent bat... in mid-June.
- Andrew McCutchen falls just short of 30-30... with 33 SB and 28 HR.
- The Pirates finish 4th again in the division, above Chicago and Houston.
- Matt Hague isn't quite the phenom everyone wants him to be, but he's not a complete bust either. .270/.295/.360 with 14 home runs.
- Evan Meek returns to 2010 form and cements his role as the set-up man.
- Starling Marte is called up in June and is a candidate for the ROY.
- Brad Lincoln gets 5 wins on the season.
- Nate McClouth embraces his role as a bench player and has his best statistical season in years.
I'll revisit these predictions at the end of the season.
VFPH is 2
VFPH turns 2 today, just in time for Opening Day. The blog has scaled back from what it once was due to lack of time (no longer an every game post), but we're still around and new posts will be put up on a more sporadic basis. Thanks for reading.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Stats: What if Marc-Andre Fleury had started every game this season?
First let me start by saying that I am a huge fan of Brent Johnson. From his love of Led Zeppelin (prominently displayed on his goalie mask) to his leadership role in the Pens' locker room, he is a favorite of both fans and players alike. Still, it can't be contended that he has struggled mightily so far this season, culminating in the meltdown in Buffalo over the weekend. Okay, maybe that was unfair: the Penguins as a team have struggled to post Ws when Johnny is given the nod in goal. The team has a record of just 3-7-2 when Johnson is the starting goaltender. This table breaks down all of the games so far this season:
So far this year, the Penguins have compiled a record of 34-21-5, scoring an average of 3.1 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.667 goals per game. Their goal differential this year is +26, good for 6th in the league in that category. The Penguins have been extremely fortunate to not have any serious goaltender injuries this year (knock on wood), and so far have only had to start two goalies all season (Fleury and Johnson). At no point so far has a goalie other than one of those two seen any game time this season. The following table breaks down each goalie's season thus far:
Johnson's role as the backup is very apparent, as Fleury has played 4 times as many games as Johnson has. Note that the wins, losses, etc. may not reflect that goalie's actual record, it is merely the results of games in which that goaltender started. Avg GF is the average number of goals the Penguins scored in games that goalie started, while Avg GA is the average number of goals allowed in the same situation (and is NOT the same as GAA, as that stat takes ice time and how many goals the goalie was actually in net for into account). On average, the Penguins scored 0.854 more goals and allowed 0.938 fewer goals in games where Marc-Andre Fleury was the starter compared to Brent Johnson. This means that if these rates held true and Fleury had started every game this season, the goal differential in Johnson's games needs to be adjusted in the Penguins' favor by 1.792 goals. Given that Johnson has lost 1 goal games with a high regularity this season, it could significantly affect the Penguins' standing had this trend held all season. The final table shows what might have happened in Johnson's games had Fleury been given the nod:
For the sake of argument, any games which resulted in a tie score after adjustment have been recorded as overtime losses. Rounding up the 1.792 goals to a 2 goal swing, we can see that 5 of Johnson's losses would have been wins (in addition to the 3 games which were already wins), and a further 2 losses would gain the Penguins at least a point in each. The 6-game losing streak would not be affected, however, as Johnson's loss during that stretch was by a large margin. Instead of the 3-7-2 record, the Penguins would have posted a record of 8-2-2 during these games, bringing their overall record to 39-16-5, or 83 points and first place in the eastern conference, 1 point off of Detroit for first place in the league.
This is not to say that these results absolutely would have happened had Fleury started every game, as it does not take many factors into account, including fatigue, slumps, travel time, playing a game less than 24 hours after a tough divisional matchup, etc. etc., not to mention playing that many games in a row could lead to injury for Fleury. But nonetheless it is interesting to see what might have been.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Venue | GF | GA | Result | Starting Goalie |
| 1 | 10/6 | Canucks | road | 4 | 3 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 2 | 10/8 | Flames | road | 5 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 3 | 10/9 | Oilers | road | 1 | 2 | L/SO | Johnson |
| 4 | 10/11 | Panthers | home | 4 | 2 | W | Fleury |
| 5 | 10/13 | Capitals | home | 2 | 3 | L/OT | Johnson |
| 6 | 10/15 | Sabres | home | 2 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 7 | 10/17 | Jets | road | 1 | 2 | L | Fleury |
| 8 | 10/18 | Wild | road | 4 | 2 | W | Johnson |
| 9 | 10/20 | Canadiens | home | 3 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 10 | 10/22 | Devils | home | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 11 | 10/25 | Islanders | road | 3 | 0 | W | Fleury |
| 12 | 10/27 | Islanders | home | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 13 | 10/29 | Maple Leafs | road | 3 | 4 | L | Johnson |
| 14 | 11/3 | Sharks | road | 3 | 4 | L/SO | Fleury |
| 15 | 11/5 | Kings | road | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 16 | 11/11 | Stars | home | 3 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 17 | 11/12 | Hurricanes | road | 3 | 5 | L | Johnson |
| 18 | 11/15 | Avalanche | home | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 19 | 11/17 | Lightning | road | 1 | 4 | L | Fleury |
| 20 | 11/19 | Panthers | road | 2 | 3 | L | Johnson |
| 21 | 11/21 | Islanders | home | 5 | 0 | W | Fleury |
| 22 | 11/23 | Blues | home | 2 | 3 | L/OT | Fleury |
| 23 | 11/25 | Senators | home | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 24 | 11/26 | Canadiens | road | 4 | 3 | W/OT | Fleury |
| 25 | 11/29 | Rangers | road | 3 | 4 | L | Fleury |
| 26 | 12/1 | Capitals | road | 2 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 27 | 12/3 | Hurricanes | road | 3 | 2 | W | Johnson |
| 28 | 12/5 | Bruins | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 29 | 12/8 | Flyers | road | 2 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 30 | 12/10 | Islanders | road | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 31 | 12/13 | Red Wings | home | 1 | 4 | L | Fleury |
| 32 | 12/16 | Senators | road | 4 | 6 | L | Johnson |
| 33 | 12/17 | Sabres | home | 8 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 34 | 12/20 | Blackhawks | home | 3 | 2 | W | Fleury |
| 35 | 12/23 | Jets | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 36 | 12/27 | Hurricanes | home | 4 | 2 | W | Fleury |
| 37 | 12/29 | Flyers | home | 2 | 4 | L | Fleury |
| 38 | 12/31 | Devils | road | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 39 | 1/6 | Rangers | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 40 | 1/7 | Devils | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury |
| 41 | 1/10 | Senators | home | 1 | 5 | L | Johnson |
| 42 | 1/11 | Capitals | road | 0 | 1 | L | Fleury |
| 43 | 1/13 | Panthers | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 44 | 1/15 | Lightning | road | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury |
| 45 | 1/17 | Hurricanes | home | 2 | 1 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 46 | 1/19 | Rangers | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 47 | 1/20 | Canadiens | home | 5 | 4 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 48 | 1/22 | Capitals | home | 4 | 3 | W/OT | Fleury |
| 49 | 1/24 | Blues | road | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 50 | 1/31 | Maple Leafs | home | 5 | 4 | W/SO | Fleury |
| 51 | 2/1 | Maple Leafs | road | 0 | 1 | L | Johnson |
| 52 | 2/4 | Bruins | road | 2 | 1 | W | Fleury |
| 53 | 2/5 | Devils | road | 2 | 5 | L | Fleury |
| 54 | 2/7 | Canadiens | road | 2 | 3 | L/SO | Fleury |
| 55 | 2/11 | Jets | home | 8 | 5 | W | Fleury |
| 56 | 2/12 | Lightning | home | 4 | 2 | W | Johnson |
| 57 | 2/15 | Ducks | home | 1 | 2 | L | Fleury |
| 58 | 2/18 | Flyers | road | 6 | 4 | W | Fleury |
| 59 | 2/19 | Sabres | road | 2 | 6 | L | Johnson |
| 60 | 2/21 | Rangers | home | 2 | 0 | W | Fleury |
| Total | 186 | 160 | +26 | ||||
| Avg | 3.100 | 2.667 | +0.433 | ||||
So far this year, the Penguins have compiled a record of 34-21-5, scoring an average of 3.1 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.667 goals per game. Their goal differential this year is +26, good for 6th in the league in that category. The Penguins have been extremely fortunate to not have any serious goaltender injuries this year (knock on wood), and so far have only had to start two goalies all season (Fleury and Johnson). At no point so far has a goalie other than one of those two seen any game time this season. The following table breaks down each goalie's season thus far:
| Goaltender | Games | Avg GF | Avg GA | W | ROW | SOL | L |
| Fleury | 48 | 3.271 | 2.479 | 31 | 24 | 3 | 14 |
| Johnson | 12 | 2.417 | 3.417 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Total | 60 | 34 | 27 | 5 | 21 | ||
| Diff | +0.854 | -0.938 | |||||
| Swing | 1.792 | ||||||
Johnson's role as the backup is very apparent, as Fleury has played 4 times as many games as Johnson has. Note that the wins, losses, etc. may not reflect that goalie's actual record, it is merely the results of games in which that goaltender started. Avg GF is the average number of goals the Penguins scored in games that goalie started, while Avg GA is the average number of goals allowed in the same situation (and is NOT the same as GAA, as that stat takes ice time and how many goals the goalie was actually in net for into account). On average, the Penguins scored 0.854 more goals and allowed 0.938 fewer goals in games where Marc-Andre Fleury was the starter compared to Brent Johnson. This means that if these rates held true and Fleury had started every game this season, the goal differential in Johnson's games needs to be adjusted in the Penguins' favor by 1.792 goals. Given that Johnson has lost 1 goal games with a high regularity this season, it could significantly affect the Penguins' standing had this trend held all season. The final table shows what might have happened in Johnson's games had Fleury been given the nod:
| Game | Date | Opponent | Venue | GF | GA | Result | Starting Goalie | If Fleury |
| 1 | 10/6 | Canucks | road | 4 | 3 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 2 | 10/8 | Flames | road | 5 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 3 | 10/9 | Oilers | road | 1 | 2 | L/SO | Johnson | W |
| 4 | 10/11 | Panthers | home | 4 | 2 | W | Fleury | |
| 5 | 10/13 | Capitals | home | 2 | 3 | L/OT | Johnson | W |
| 6 | 10/15 | Sabres | home | 2 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Jets | road | 1 | 2 | L | Fleury | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Wild | road | 4 | 2 | W | Johnson | W |
| 9 | 10/20 | Canadiens | home | 3 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 10 | 10/22 | Devils | home | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 11 | 10/25 | Islanders | road | 3 | 0 | W | Fleury | |
| 12 | 10/27 | Islanders | home | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 13 | 10/29 | Maple Leafs | road | 3 | 4 | L | Johnson | W |
| 14 | 11/3 | Sharks | road | 3 | 4 | L/SO | Fleury | |
| 15 | 11/5 | Kings | road | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 16 | 11/11 | Stars | home | 3 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 17 | 11/12 | Hurricanes | road | 3 | 5 | L | Johnson | O |
| 18 | 11/15 | Avalanche | home | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 19 | 11/17 | Lightning | road | 1 | 4 | L | Fleury | |
| 20 | 11/19 | Panthers | road | 2 | 3 | L | Johnson | W |
| 21 | 11/21 | Islanders | home | 5 | 0 | W | Fleury | |
| 22 | 11/23 | Blues | home | 2 | 3 | L/OT | Fleury | |
| 23 | 11/25 | Senators | home | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 24 | 11/26 | Canadiens | road | 4 | 3 | W/OT | Fleury | |
| 25 | 11/29 | Rangers | road | 3 | 4 | L | Fleury | |
| 26 | 12/1 | Capitals | road | 2 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 27 | 12/3 | Hurricanes | road | 3 | 2 | W | Johnson | W |
| 28 | 12/5 | Bruins | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 29 | 12/8 | Flyers | road | 2 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 30 | 12/10 | Islanders | road | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 31 | 12/13 | Red Wings | home | 1 | 4 | L | Fleury | |
| 32 | 12/16 | Senators | road | 4 | 6 | L | Johnson | O |
| 33 | 12/17 | Sabres | home | 8 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 34 | 12/20 | Blackhawks | home | 3 | 2 | W | Fleury | |
| 35 | 12/23 | Jets | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 36 | 12/27 | Hurricanes | home | 4 | 2 | W | Fleury | |
| 37 | 12/29 | Flyers | home | 2 | 4 | L | Fleury | |
| 38 | 12/31 | Devils | road | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 39 | 1/6 | Rangers | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 40 | 1/7 | Devils | home | 1 | 3 | L | Fleury | |
| 41 | 1/10 | Senators | home | 1 | 5 | L | Johnson | L |
| 42 | 1/11 | Capitals | road | 0 | 1 | L | Fleury | |
| 43 | 1/13 | Panthers | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 44 | 1/15 | Lightning | road | 6 | 3 | W | Fleury | |
| 45 | 1/17 | Hurricanes | home | 2 | 1 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 46 | 1/19 | Rangers | road | 4 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 47 | 1/20 | Canadiens | home | 5 | 4 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 48 | 1/22 | Capitals | home | 4 | 3 | W/OT | Fleury | |
| 49 | 1/24 | Blues | road | 3 | 2 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 50 | 1/31 | Maple Leafs | home | 5 | 4 | W/SO | Fleury | |
| 51 | 2/1 | Maple Leafs | road | 0 | 1 | L | Johnson | W |
| 52 | 2/4 | Bruins | road | 2 | 1 | W | Fleury | |
| 53 | 2/5 | Devils | road | 2 | 5 | L | Fleury | |
| 54 | 2/7 | Canadiens | road | 2 | 3 | L/SO | Fleury | |
| 55 | 2/11 | Jets | home | 8 | 5 | W | Fleury | |
| 56 | 2/12 | Lightning | home | 4 | 2 | W | Johnson | W |
| 57 | 2/15 | Ducks | home | 1 | 2 | L | Fleury | |
| 58 | 2/18 | Flyers | road | 6 | 4 | W | Fleury | |
| 59 | 2/19 | Sabres | road | 2 | 6 | L | Johnson | L |
| 60 | 2/21 | Rangers | home | 2 | 0 | W | Fleury | |
| Total | 186 | 160 | +26 | 8-2-2 | ||||
| Avg | 3.100 | 2.667 | +0.433 | |||||
For the sake of argument, any games which resulted in a tie score after adjustment have been recorded as overtime losses. Rounding up the 1.792 goals to a 2 goal swing, we can see that 5 of Johnson's losses would have been wins (in addition to the 3 games which were already wins), and a further 2 losses would gain the Penguins at least a point in each. The 6-game losing streak would not be affected, however, as Johnson's loss during that stretch was by a large margin. Instead of the 3-7-2 record, the Penguins would have posted a record of 8-2-2 during these games, bringing their overall record to 39-16-5, or 83 points and first place in the eastern conference, 1 point off of Detroit for first place in the league.
This is not to say that these results absolutely would have happened had Fleury started every game, as it does not take many factors into account, including fatigue, slumps, travel time, playing a game less than 24 hours after a tough divisional matchup, etc. etc., not to mention playing that many games in a row could lead to injury for Fleury. But nonetheless it is interesting to see what might have been.
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